ARA CHRISTMAS SHOPPING 2015 FACT SHEET

Media Release Trade figures

ARA CHRISTMAS SHOPPING 2015 FACT SHEET

Pre-Christmas (Nov 15 to Dec 24, 2015)

  • Australians predicted to spend $46.8 billion nationally in the six week lead up to Christmas 2015 according to ARA and Roy Morgan Research
  • ARA predicts $2.8 billion to be spent online pre-Christmas
  • $19 billion to be spent on food this Christmas (largest category)
  • ‘Other’ category predicted to see highest spending growth for Christmas 2016 at 5.6 percent, followed by apparel at 4.7 percent
  • Victoria to see the biggest increase in Christmas spending year on year at 4.6 percent and $11.6 billion, followed by Queensland at 4.2 percent growth and $9.5 billion
  • Retail thefts expected to cost Australian retailers $1.4 billion in the six weeks to Christmas Day 2015 – three percent of the ARA and Roy Morgan Research’s total predicted Christmas spend.

Boxing Day (Dec 26, 2015)

  • $2.3 billion to be spent nationally in the 24 hours of Boxing Day (December 26)
  • ARA predicts NSW and Victorian shoppers to spend the most this Boxing Day, at $750 million and $721 million respectively, with Queenslanders to fork out $387 million on retail purchases
  • Top selling items include electricals, clothing and footwear, and household goods
  • Discounts as large as 75 percent to be offered by retailers on Boxing Day
  • Large CBD department stores to open their doors from 5am on Boxing Day
  • CBD shopping precincts and flagship shopping centres expected to receive the greatest foot traffic throughout the day
  • All NSW retailers able to trade on Boxing Day for the first time in 2015 (previously restricted to tourist precincts and Sydney CBD)
  • Some state and territories are restricted from trade on the Boxing Day public holiday outside of tourist zones.

Post-Christmas (Dec 26 to Jan 15, 2016)

  • $16.8 billion to be spent by Australian shoppers nationally in the post-Christmas sales period according to ARA and Roy Morgan Research
  • Victoria will see the lion’s share of the post-Christmas shopping growth, up 5.6 percent to $4.2 billion across the 21-day period tracked by ARA and Roy Morgan Research, followed by NSW at 3.8 percent growth and $5.3 billion
  • ‘Other’ category to grow by the most at 6.1 percent year on year to $2.3 billion, followed by department stores at a 4.3 percent increase and $1 billion sales
  • $6.8 billion to be spent on food post-Christmas, including New Years.

Category and state breakdowns

ARA ROY MORGAN PRE-CHRISTMAS 2015 SALES PREDICTIONS – November 15 – December 24, 2015

2015 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by State

State 2014 pre-xmas

Actual ($mil)

2015 pre-xmas

Forecast ($mil)

Predicted growth

(%)

NSW 14377 14854 3.3%
Victoria 11174 11688 4.6%
Queensland 9200 9590 4.2%
South Australia 2945 3026 2.7%
Western Australia 5253 5393 2.7%
Tasmania 882 907 2.7%
Northern Territory 489 493 0.8%
Australian Capital Territory 815 824 1.1%
NATIONAL 45137 46775 3.6%

(ARA/ROY MORGAN)

2015 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by Category

Category 2014 pre-xmas

Actual ($mil)

2015 pre-xmas

Forecast ($mil)

Predicted growth

(%)

Food 18545 18987 2.4%
Household goods 7839 8144 3.9%
Apparel 3436 3598 4.7%
Department stores 2901 3018 4.0%
Other 6112 6456 5.6%
Hospitality 6305 6573 4.3%
NATIONAL 45137 46775 3.6%

(ARA/ROY MORGAN)

ARA ROY MORGAN POST-CHRISTMAS 2015/16 SALES PREDICTIONS – December 26, 2015 – January 15, 2016

Boxing Day 2015 sales

State 2015
NSW $749,920,990
Victoria $721,077,875
Queensland $387,135,233
South Australia $115,752,881
Western Australia $200,878,807
Tasmania $51,818,336
Northern Territory $25,947,127
Australian Capital Territory $48,957,876
NATIONAL $2,301,489,127

(Australian Retailers Association)

2015/16 Post-Christmas Sales Growth by State

State 2014 post-xmas

Actual ($mil)

2015/16 post-xmas

Forecast ($mil)

Predicted growth

(%)

NSW 5127 5321 3.8%
Victoria 3997 4220 5.6%
Queensland 3309 3419 3.3%
South Australia 1049 1083 3.3%
Western Australia 1877 1943 3.5%
Tasmania 316 324 2.6%
Northern Territory 172 176 2.1%
Australian Capital Territory 288 295 2.6%
NATIONAL 16135 16781 4.0%

(ARA/ROY MORGAN)

2015/16 Post-Christmas Sales Growth by Category

Category 2014 pre-xmas

Actual ($mil)

2015/16 pre-xmas

Forecast ($mil)

Predicted growth

(%)

Food 6593 6815 3.4%
Household goods 2796 2905 3.9%
Apparel 1243 1291 3.9%
Department stores 1042 1087 4.3%
Other 2192 2326 6.1%
Hospitality 2269 2357 3.9%
NATIONAL 16135 16781 4.0%

(ARA/ROY MORGAN)

For interview opportunities with ARA Executive Director, Russell Zimmerman, call the ARA Media team on 0439 612 556 or email media@retail.org.au

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