Tills to ring louder than sleigh bells this Christmas as the ARA and Roy Morgan release pre-Christmas predictions

Media Release

Saturday 10 November 2018: The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan’s Annual pre-Christmas predictions indicate, Australian shoppers will spend over $51 billion across retail stores in Australia during the Christmas trading period from November 9 to December 24, 2018.

Russell Zimmerman, Executive Director of the ARA, said while the Australian retail industry has seen some patchy results in recent times, the ARA and Roy Morgan are forecasting Australian consumers to spend 2.9% more this Christmas compared to 2017.

“With consumer spending on the rise as noted in September’s retail trade figures, the ARA and Roy Morgan are confident that this year’s Christmas sales will remain strong during the festive season, with a 3.67% total year-on-year growth across the retail sector,” Mr Zimmerman said.

“An estimated $21 billion is expected to be spent on Food this Christmas, which is a 3.7% increase from the previous year and coincides with the consistent figures recorded from this category throughout 2018.”

Apparel and Household Goods will also record a significant increase in trade, with the ARA and Roy Morgan predicting $4 billion to be spent on clothing, footwear and personal accessories, a 3.1% increase from the previous year, while nearly $9 billion is expected to be spent on Household Goods, a 2.0% increase from 2017.

With Aussies looking to spend quality time with friends and family during the Christmas season, restaurant and café retailers will see strong growth in sales this year, with the Hospitality category expected to increase by a substantial 3.2%.

Across the States and Territories, pre-Christmas sales predictions point to bumper growth for Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia during Christmas trade this year, with these regions showing the strongest predicted growth.

“Christmas is a joyous and celebrated event, admired by Australians who embrace the season of giving. With the retail landscape continuing to adapt to changes in the industry, we can rely on this season to bring stability to retailers,” Mr. Zimmerman said.

“As the online retail market continues to expand, the ARA are also predicting online gift purchases to increase by 2.7% with Australian shoppers expected to purchase many of their gifts online this year.”

“Each year, the ARA and Roy Morgan work together to produce the only professionally researched industry Christmas predictions in Australia, and we believe the figures released today represent a comprehensive preview of retail figures leading into Christmas.”

ARA Roy Morgan Pre-Christmas Sales Predictions: November 9 – December 24, 2018 

2018 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by Category 

2018 Pre-Christmas Sales Growth by State


For more information on Christmas predictions and to keep up to date, please visit www.retail.org.au/christmas-predictions

Roy Morgan are the longest and best known market research company in Australia. For more information please visit http://www.roymorgan.com/

For interview opportunities with ARA Executive Director Russell Zimmerman call the ARA Media Team on 0439 612 556 or email media@retail.org.au


About the Australian Retailers Association:

Founded in 1903, the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) is Australia’s largest retail association, representing the country’s $310 billion sector, which employs more than 1.2 million people. As Australia’s leading retail peak industry body, the ARA is a strong pro-active advocate for Australian retail and works to ensure retail success by informing, protecting, advocating, educating and saving money for its 7,500 independent and national retail members throughout Australia. For more information, visit www.retail.org.au or call 1300 368 041.

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