Peak Season Hub Insights | Australian Retail Council

The peak outlook

Peak is shifting - shoppers are changing how and when they buy

Peak is becoming more concentrated around major promotional events, while cost-of-living pressures are changing how consumers approach their spending. Here’s what the forecasts say about the biggest weeks of the year.

$7.2

billion

Forecast Black Friday & Cyber Monday weekend spending, up 5.5% on a year ago ($6.8 billion).

Roy Morgan

$77.7

billion

Forecast retail sales in the six weeks before Christmas, up 5.5% on a year ago (seasonally adjusted).

Roy Morgan

45%

of consumers expect 45% of their holiday spending to occur in early December.

Deloitte Retail Report 2026

70%

of shoppers say they will pay full price to get the exact product they want.

Deloitte Retail Report 2026

Consumer insights

What are Australians looking for this peak?

• $90 average basket size, a record low and down 5% year-on-year

• 46% of shoppers are more price conscious

• 34% have switched to lower-cost alternatives

Retailers should lead with value, promotions and bundled offers rather than relying on bigger baskets. Make savings easy to find and keep pricing, delivery costs and returns policies transparent to reduce hesitation.

Australia Post – Quarterly eCommerce Update FY26 Q4 | July 2026

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• 77% say cost-of-living pressures are changing how they shop

• 70% will pay full price for the exact product they want

• 61% rate physical stores as their top channel

Value isn’t simply the lowest price. Quality remains the leading purchase driver, and customers expect online and in-store experiences to work together.

Deloitte – The Retail Report 2026

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• 76% of businesses expect higher sales this holiday season

• 65% of shoppers are likely to use AI for at least one shopping task

• 24% of shoppers deliberately leave products in their cart to decide whether they still want them

Businesses are expecting a stronger season, but shoppers are making them earn it. They’re using AI to widen their options and holding items in their cart until the price or product is right.

Shopify – 2026 Global Holiday Retail Report – Global survey of 18,000 consumers and 7,500 business leaders, including Australia.

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77% of Australians say cost-of-living pressures are changing how they shop.

But value isn’t simply about the lowest price. Product quality remains the leading purchase driver, and 70% say they’ll pay full price for the exact product they want.

Deloitte | The Retail Report 2026