This week, we reveal the expected Christmas retail sales results in partnership with Roy Morgan.

How much will Australians spend this year, compared to last year? Which states will spend the most?  

The ARA-Roy Morgan 2021 pre-Christmas Retail Sales predictions forecast that overall spending will come in at $58.8 billion, virtually unchanged on last year, but up 11.3% on pre-pandemic conditions.

There’s a lot of Christmas cheer in these numbers, with the overall trend looking positive, and that is great news for small businesses and discretionary retailers who have suffered through some of the longest lockdowns in the world this year. The Christmas trading period is when many discretionary retailers make up to two thirds of their profits for the year.

Although the ARA-Roy Morgan data predicts the impact of Covid lockdowns will continue to suppress retail sales, year-end spending in NSW and Victoria is expected to bounce back strongly in December. And those states not impacted by lockdowns will enjoy a more gradual ramp-up in sales growth leading into Christmas.

Let’s take a look at the key insights…