Post-Christmas sales forecast to reach a record $23.5 billion – up 7.9% yoy

Australian retail sales are set to remain strong following the festive trading period, with consumers predicted to spend a record $23.5 billion during the Boxing Day sales– an increase of 7.9% over last year – according to forecasts released today by the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) in collaboration with strategic partners Roy Morgan and Salesforce.

Hospitality venues are predicted to drive the greatest growth – forecast to increase whopping 30% over this time last year – when many Australians were battling the Omicron wave. Clothing is also predicted to see double digit growth, with a predicted rise of 11.4% over last year, followed by Department stores with growth of 8.9% forecast year-on-year – mainly driven by deep discounts due to unseasonal weather.

ARA CEO Paul Zahra said whilst a slow-down is anticipated at some point in 2023, the results are encouraging in a challenging economic environment.

“It’s clear to see Australian’s love affair with shopping continues – shopping and dining-out remain some of our most beloved pass-times through the holiday season. Whilst it’s encouraging to see continued record results for retail, it’s important to acknowledge there are a range of factors influencing the results – including inflationary pricing, and unseasonal weather severally impacting the fashion industry.”

Mr Zahra said Boxing Day remains an important milestone in the retail calendar and this year will be no exception.

“Christmas trading is focused on gifts for others. Post-Christmas Australian’s typically turn their minds to purchases for themselves and their household. It’s been a tough year for many, and this year we are seeing what we are calling ‘freedom’ spending, where people reward themselves after an intense and challenging period. The rush to get out and indulge the senses – eat drink and be merry – remains a constant through this holiday period as Australian’s recover their post-pandemic mojo,” he said.

Salesforce Holiday Shopping Insights

According to the Salesforce Holiday Shopping Insights for the extended holiday shopping season, shoppers in ANZ are holding out for great deals post-Christmas (26 December – 15 January). The data reveals retailers can expect to see a 15% increase in digital traffic on Boxing Day compared to Black Friday.

Almost a quarter (23%) of total sales from the extended holiday shopping season (1 November – 15 January) are forecast to take place post-Christmas, averaging a discount of 17%. Of those orders, 74% of online traffic and 67% of orders will come from mobile devices.

Jo Gaines, Area Vice President of Retail and Consumer Goods, Salesforce says “As interest rates continue to climb shoppers will be focused on seeking out the best deals post-Christmas. However, it isn’t just promotions, consumers still expect retailers to deliver exceptional experiences wherever they are, whether that’s online or in-store, that recognises and appreciates their unique preferences.”

Mr Zahra said Boxing Day sales are known for retailers clearing out current season’s merchandise in preparation for the next season.

“The fashion industry has suffered an unseasonal Summer hence, there will be great buys for consumers and great discounts as they prepare for the new season’s intake. Of course, retailers are also keen to clear any excess inventory from the festive season. You will find something for everyone across every store and every category both instore and online. It’s a great time to save,” said Mr Zahra.

ARA/Roy Morgan Post-Christmas Sales (Retail Categories) 

The results are measured from Boxing Day until 15 January 2023


2021 Post-Christmas Sales

($m – seasonally adjusted)

2022 Post-Christmas Sales forecasts

($m – seasonally adjusted)

Growth % vs 2021

(Seasonally adjusted)





Household Goods








Department Stores




Other Retailing





































ARA/Roy Morgan Post-Christmas Sales (States and Territories) 

The results are measured from Boxing Day until 15 January 2023


2021 Post-Christmas Sales

($m – seasonally adjusted)

2022 Post-Christmas Sales forecasts

($m – seasonally adjusted)

Growth % vs 2021

(seasonally adjusted)













South Australia




Western Australia








Northern Territory


































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About us: The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) is the oldest, largest and most diverse national retail body, representing a $400 billion sector that employs 1.3 million Australians and is the largest private sector employer in the country. As Australia’s peak retail body, representing more than 120,000 retail shop fronts and online stores, the ARA informs, advocates, educates, protects and unifies our independent, national and international retail community. To learn more about ARA’s exclusive member benefits and more, visit



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